Warsaw | 16November2016

INTENSE ENDING TO A CALM YEAR, A SOLID OUTLOOK FOR 2017

15 listopada 2016

In 2016 Poland’s total retail floor space is expected to increase to 11.26 million sq m. According to the latest Poland Retail Market View Q4 2016 prepared by CBRE, new developments include 17 new projects and 12 extensions, enriching the market by approximately 390,000 sq m of new space, out of which as much as 73% (more than 280,000 sq m) was scheduled for completion in the last quarter of 2016.

Among the most significant openings of 2016 there are: Centrum Posnania in Poznan (99,000 sq m of GLA), Galeria Metropolia in Gdansk (34,200 sq m of GLA), Navigator in Mielec (25,400 sq m of GLA), Galeria Wolomin in Wolomin (23,500 sq m of GLA), Galeria Glogovia in Glogow (21,000 sq m of GLA), Galeria Tomaszow in Tomaszow Mazowiecki (16,200 sq m of GLA), Galeria Sudecka extension (15,000 sq m of GLA.) and Centrum Handlowe HIT in Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (15,000 sq m of GLA).

The growth of new retail stock in 2016 was less dynamic than in the previous years. The current trend of extension and modernization of shopping centers is expected to grow on importance. Since the retail density ratio is continuously growing in Poland, there is little room for new retail schemes and many older projects seek for opportunities to strengthen their position on the market.

Around 558,000 sq m of retail space is currently under construction. The total new supply in 2017 is expected to be about 20% higher than in 2016, taking into consideration only those projects which are currently under construction. Owing to the growing competition from new projects, which are being upgraded to modern market standards, older schemes are expected to undergo significant changes in the next few years.

Agata Czarnecka, Associate Director, Research and Consultancy Department, CBRE

Agata Czarnecka - Linkedin

Due to its size the Polish retail market is still attractive for the new retail brands development. Despite well-known retailers expanding their market share, in 2016 demand for retail space was generated from new brands opening their first stores in Poland. This year over 41% of new retailers were luxury brands, which proves an optimistic market sentiment. Surprisingly, one of the well-known Polish brands - Delicatessen Alma - left the market, giving way to a new supermarket operator to enter the Polish market.

Some new legal regulations in Poland may cause concern for the future. As of September 2016, Poland introduced a progressive tax on large-format retailers, however, Poland’s cabinet has approved suspension of new regulation until the end of 2017. Additionally, a draft bill proposing the prohibition of Sunday trading was submitted to the Polish Parliament.

Warsaw remains the biggest retail market in Poland, with the best and most well-known shopping centres. In 2016 Warsaw’s total retail floor space increased to almost 1.49 million sq m. The new developments in Warsaw agglomeration included Galeria Wolomin, Galeria Legionowo and two extensions of Atrium Promenada. There are still some underdeveloped areas, that may be considered for new retail locations. The Warsaw high streets however, have the highest potential with a number of new projects and tenants looking to open a new store there.

Magdalena Frątczak, Senior Director, Retail Department at CBRE

Magdalena Frątczak - LinkedIn